Trajectory prediction in air traffic control
Validation exercises for the SESAR ATC-TBO project took place at the headquarters of the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (PANSA), organized under the SESAR 3 Joint Undertaking partnership. The Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of the University of Warsaw (ICM UW) participated in the session as the partner responsible for developing advanced trajectory prediction algorithms in controlled airspace.
The validation took the form of a real-time simulation (RTS) using historical air traffic data on the iTEC/iSIM platform, integrated with a voice communication system and a CPDLC data link. The exercise involved controllers from Warsaw ACC, a feeder, pseudo-pilots, PAŻP technicians, and teams from ICM UW and Indra, the leader of the technical solution.
The goal of the tests was to check the effectiveness of solutions based on subtle navigation data, such as departure and arrival airports, aircraft type, flight phase speeds, time of day, and meteorological conditions, in accurately forecasting trajectories. This allows for earlier detection of potential conflicts in air traffic.
Currently, the Indra technical team in Spain is preparing the simulation data. The results will be used for a final assessment of the effectiveness of the implemented solutions, and their analysis will be carried out by ICM after the data is received.
In the ATC-TBO project, ICM UW is responsible for developing components that support the automation of sector planning and separation management based on extended trajectory prediction and advanced controller tools. This is another project carried out by ICM within the SESAR Joint Undertaking program, strengthening the Polish academic community’s involvement in building the digital European airspace.
More about the Air Traffic Control Trajectory Based Operations (ATC-TBO) project and ICM UW’s participation can be found here: Strategic Trajectory Management in Air Traffic Control
Photo: PANSA
International project co-financed by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education under the program entitled “International Co-financed Projects”, contract no. 5741/HE/2024/2
